A Memecoin Insider Risk Score: What Goes Into It and What It Cannot Tell You
2026-10-08
Most memecoin rugs share a shape: a few wallets hold a large share, many of them were created minutes before launch, and liquidity is thin enough that one sale breaks the price. The Insider Risk Score turns those signals into a 0 to 100 number with every point traced to evidence.
The six signals
| Signal | Max points | Reaches maximum at |
|---|---|---|
| Top-10 wallet concentration | 25 | 60% of supply |
| Largest single wallet | 15 | 20% of supply |
| Linked holder cluster | 25 | 30% of supply |
| Fresh-wallet supply | 15 | 25% of supply |
| Deployer still holding | 10 | 10% of supply |
| Thin liquidity | 10 | liquidity at 0% of market cap, none at 10% or more |
Pools, burn addresses and contracts are excluded from the concentration signals, since an exchange pool holding a lot is normal. Each signal scales linearly up to its maximum. Levels: under 30 is Low, 30 to 49 Moderate, 50 to 69 High, 70 and above Extreme.
An invented example
Imagine a token where the top 10 wallets hold 68% of the sampled supply, the largest holds 22%, four fresh wallets linked by early transfers hold 41% together, and liquidity is 2% of market cap. Top-10 and largest-wallet signals hit their maximum, the cluster signal does too, and thin liquidity adds 8 of 10. The score lands well above 70: Extreme. Compare a token with 60 wallets each holding 1.4% and no clusters: it scores Low.
What it cannot tell you
- It uses a sample of holders. If the sample covers under half the supply, the tool marks confidence low and says concentration may be understated.
- A cluster means sampled wallets moved this token between each other. That is evidence of a link, not proof of one owner.
- A low score does not mean safe. It does not read contract code, ownership permissions or off-chain promises.
API: /api/lab/insider-risk?chain=robinhood&address=0x....
Pricing and limits
Runs are metered. Hindsight tools cost $0.002 a run, Token Lab holder tools $0.01, and Social Pulse or the AI analyst $0.05, taken from account credits. Paid plans include a monthly allowance and then fall back to credits. Anonymous visitors get a few free hindsight samples a day, and any result someone has already computed is free to view for a few minutes. Daily and monthly spend caps apply to every account.
The worked example uses an invented token to show how the score moves; it is not a real project. Run the tool on a real contract to see observed data. Holder data is a sample, linked wallets are observed transfers rather than proof of one owner, and nothing here is financial advice.