Crypto in September 2025: The Fed's First Cut of the Year
2025-10-01
September is historically crypto's weakest month, and 2025 brought the macro event traders had waited all year for: the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since December 2024. The reaction, though, was a lesson in "buy the rumor, sell the news." Here is the recap.
The Fed Finally Eases
On September 17, the FOMC cut rates 25 basis points to a 4.00-4.25% target range -- its first reduction since December 2024 -- and projected two more cuts by year-end. Markets had priced the move at roughly 96% odds, so the cut itself was no surprise. Bitcoin ran up to around $117,000 ahead of the decision, then fell about 4.6% after Chair Powell struck a cautious tone on the pace of further easing. The much-anticipated rally proved short-lived.
Another Exchange Goes Public
On September 12, the Winklevoss-founded exchange Gemini (GEMI) debuted on Nasdaq, pricing at $28 and raising about $425 million at a ~$3.3 billion valuation. It opened near $37, up 32%, and closed its first day up roughly 14% -- the third major crypto IPO of the year after Circle and Bullish.
A Quietly Weak Month
Beneath the Fed headline, momentum was fading. Ethereum dipped toward $3,825 before stabilizing above $3,900, and Bitcoin's post-cut weakness hinted at exhaustion after a record-setting summer. Over the following month BTC would slip another ~7% and ETH ~13% -- the first cracks in the year's uptrend.
Hacks
Exploits totaled around $127 million across about 20 incidents -- down 22% from August, but a record 16 of them topped $1 million each. The largest were UXLINK (~$44 million via multisig manipulation on September 22) and SwissBorg (~$41.5 million).
The Takeaway
September was a reminder that a "dovish" catalyst can still produce a selloff when it is fully priced in. The market had front-run the cut for months; when it arrived, there was no fuel left. Distinguishing what is priced from what is news is precisely where probabilistic forecasting adds value. See our live signals on the dashboard.