Crypto in April 2025: Liberation Day, the Crash, and the Rebound
2025-05-01
April began with a tariff shock that cratered every risk asset on the planet, then staged one of the year's sharpest V-shaped recoveries. For crypto, it was a month that rewarded anyone who kept their head while the tape went vertical in both directions.
"Liberation Day"
On April 2, Trump announced sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs -- a 10% baseline import tax plus steep reciprocal rates (34% on China, 20% on the EU) -- the largest single-day US tariff escalation in modern history. Risk assets buckled. By April 6-7, Bitcoin had fallen to its 2025 low near $74,400, Ethereum bottomed around $1,383 (a roughly two-year low), and about $200 billion was wiped from total crypto market cap, which bottomed near $2.7 trillion.
The Pause and the Snap-Back
On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs (while raising China's to 125%). The relief rally was immediate: Bitcoin surged back above $81,000 and Ethereum jumped roughly 8%. By April 28 Bitcoin had reclaimed the mid-$90,000s, closing the month near $94,200 -- up about 14% despite the early-month carnage. Ethereum, however, badly lagged, finishing roughly flat near $1,794.
A $330 Million Theft
April's standout hack was not a protocol exploit but old-fashioned manipulation: on April 28, an elderly US victim was social-engineered out of 3,520 BTC (~$330 million) -- one of the largest crypto thefts ever. The lesson echoed February's Bybit attack: the attack surface is increasingly people and process, not smart contracts.
Washington Kept Easing
The Department of Justice disbanded its National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team via the "Ending Regulation by Prosecution" memo, the SEC closed its probe into PayPal's PYUSD stablecoin with no action, and Paul Atkins was sworn in as SEC Chair on April 21, cementing the agency's friendlier stance. Institutional demand showed up in the flows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $2.17 billion net for the month, including a ~$913 million single-day inflow on April 22.
The Takeaway
April was a masterclass in tail risk. A single policy headline produced a 30%-from-the-top drawdown and a near-complete recovery inside four weeks. Models that size positions for volatility -- rather than predict the next tweet -- were the ones that survived intact. See how ours are positioned on the forecasts dashboard.