Bitcoin vs Ethereum Head to Head: Return, Drawdown and Correlation
2026-10-08
Comparing two assets only works if the money, the dates and the sampling are identical. The Head to Head tool aligns two series on the days they both traded, invests the same amount at the first common close and reports the final value, CAGR, worst drawdown, annualised volatility, daily-return correlation and how many calendar years each one won.
Bitcoin vs Ethereum, $1,000 each from 1 January 2021
| Value | Return | CAGR | Worst drop | Volatility | Years won | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $2,835 | +183% | 19.8% | -77% | 57% | 5 |
| Ethereum | $3,522 | +252% | 24.4% | -79% | 77% | 1 |
Ethereum finished 1.24 times ahead, yet Bitcoin beat it in five of the six calendar-year segments. Ethereum's lead came from one strong stretch, not steady outperformance, and it took more volatility to get there. Daily-return correlation was about 0.81, so the two mostly move together; holding both diversifies less than the ticker names suggest.
How to read it
- A higher end value with a deeper drawdown is a different bet, not a free win.
- Correlation near 1 means the second asset adds little protection in a sell-off.
- Years won counts calendar years from the first common close, so partial first and last years are included.
Limits
Start dates matter. Move the start to a Bitcoin-friendly or Ethereum-friendly month and the winner can change, so test a few windows before drawing a conclusion. The tool compares price only, with no staking yield, dividends, fees or tax. Past ranking does not forecast the next one.
API: /api/lab/versus?asset=bitcoin&b=ethereum&amount=1000&from=2021-01-01. It works for any two Time Machine assets, including gold, the S&P 500 and single stocks.
Pricing and limits
Runs are metered. Hindsight tools cost $0.002 a run, Token Lab holder tools $0.01, and Social Pulse or the AI analyst $0.05, taken from account credits. Paid plans include a monthly allowance and then fall back to credits. Anonymous visitors get a few free hindsight samples a day, and any result someone has already computed is free to view for a few minutes. Daily and monthly spend caps apply to every account.
Numbers come from the BitBank Hindsight Lab run on daily closes (Yahoo Finance) on 8 October 2026. They shift as the series updates and are history, not a forecast.